WINTER IS STILL COMING, BUT $AVIR MAY END IT! πŸ’Š πŸ’Š πŸ’Š via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


WINTER IS STILL COMING, BUT $AVIR MAY END IT! πŸ’Š πŸ’Š πŸ’Š

TLDR: Ape Buys and Holds $AVIR which has shown it can reduce Covid-19 viral load by 80% in two days!

RECAP

30 days ago I predicted a dark winter for America and we are potentially on track for that. Many of you scoffed at my original post. Since my original posts 30 days ago, we have seen the infection rate of Covid-19 double.

https://preview.redd.it/bpmb3ty3bmn71.png?width=835&format=png&auto=webp&s=37ff16ca251a9da3baa1a7cc6f0abf065616bc41

Since my last $AVIR post a new variant, MU, is now in all 50 states.

And while the death rate has spiked in a miniature wave mirroring the infection rate, what is not being captured and acknowledged as a COVID-19 death are those resulting from the hospitals flooded with Covid-19 patients that cannot accept or treat any additional patients. NPR reports a man was turned away from 43 ICUs in 3 states that were full from CV-19 patients; he unfortunately died from his cardiac emergency because he couldn't get the care he needed.

But his inability to find immediate care near by is not an isolated event. As you can see in the map below many of the hospitals across this nation have ICU capacity near or at the breaking point.

https://preview.redd.it/1c4ho3y4bmn71.png?width=1082&format=png&auto=webp&s=801dfa3fa767d45f51857e506956556e347f7d90

Let this sink in deeply. Hospitals in Alaska are now rationing care due to Covid-19. In simple terms that means they are prioritizing who gets help even if that means risking the lives of others who also need help, but do not receive it.
Compounding the issue of ICU capacity is the reality that medical personnel are drained mentally, emotionally, and physically and as a result many are quitting due to Covid-19 exhaustion. When you have fewer staff that means fewer beds can be maintained and some hospitals have had to trim their capacity during a time when it is needed most.

WINTER IS STILL COMING

It seems astounding that Delta variant was first detected in America in May 2021 and within 4 months it has dashed any hopes for a return to normal. Now we are facing more mask mandates, vaccine mandates, and other realities associated with what feels like a never-ending pandemic. It is uncertain whether Lambda or Mu variants may cause a repeat of the current Delta wave in the next few months, just in time for winter, but conditions are ideal for them to do so. Both Lambda and Mu are showing greater resistance to the current vaccines. Moreover, we are about to enter the time of year where people spend more time indoors (due to cold weather) and there are major holidays that encourage large gatherings. Between Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas we have three holidays about 30 days apart from each other allowing for multiple possible infection opportunities. It will be no surprise to me that many of the already crowded hospitals in America are about to get another crushing wave of Covid-19 patients thereby straining an already fragile medical system.

HOPE IS POTENTIALLY AROUND THE CORNER!

AVIR's lead oral Covid-19 antiviral candidate, AT-527 being jointly developed with Roche, is showing great promise. Hospitalized patients in its phase 2 trial experienced a 80% viral load reduction by 2 of receiving AT-527. They also recently noted in the latest ER call that as viral load reduced, symptoms alleviated, and patients felt progressively better. AT-527 is currently in a phase 3 trial in non-hospitalized patients. Statistically, it has approximately a 56% chance of successfully passing its phase 3 trial.

$AVIR is not the only horse in this race. Pfizer and Merck are both currently testing antivirals against Covid-19, however Pfizer seems to be behind AVIR and strangely enough, Merck's candidate is not showing efficacy at reducing viral load once a patient is hospitalized.

WHAT DR. COMMODORE64__ WOULD DO!

Take two Tylenol and call me in the morning! No, seriously If I were a doctor I would want to prescribe a medication that effectively works at reducing viral load and progression with a greater window of prescription than is currently being afforded by Merck's candidate that only shows efficacy for early cases of Covid-19. As such, I believe Roche's partnership with AVIR was an extremely smart one as they have the superior drug compared to Merck's. Pfizer's potential weakness is that their covid-19 candidate is being paired and tested with another drug called ritonavir. Again, if I were a doctor, I would opt for selecting an effective treatment with the least number of drugs so I would just select AT-527 knowing that it is effective, safe, and one less medication for the patient to buy and take than compared to the Pfizer money making, I mean Covid-19 treatment plan.

Regardless of which oral medications passes phase 3 first, Barron's notes there is room in the market for more than one oral medication to be taken at home to prevent Covid-19 progression and hospitalization. It's likely all three will get passed and they will split the oral Covid-19 market.

I believe AVIR will play a major role in ending the long and dark winter of Covid-19. Patient investors will be greatly rewarded. AVIR has a bright future.

Disclaimer: I am long AVIR shares. Everything I have written is not investment advice, but was provided for entertainment purposes only. I am not a medical doctor and nothing in this post constitutes medical advice. I tried to provide links to many of the things I wrote about in this article, but they were getting flagged as spam.

Submitted September 15, 2021 at 09:18AM by Commodore64__
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