Unsolicited Market Technicals pre-game via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing
Unsolicited Market Technicals pre-game
Hey you fuckers, hope you all had an awesome 4th this year! Looks like we're heading into Earnings season on some pretty shaky ground so I drew some lines 'n shit all over my charts and though I'd share my take (though most likely wrong)…
Lets start with the 10Y:
Looking like we're respecting this rising wedge, typically a bearish pattern, reinforced by the bearish divergence in the PPO (momentum indicator). Looks like we're already getting our reaction with the latest drop. I've got a couple of key levels marked out at 2.7% and 1.7%. I'm thinking the Fed is about to poosey out and pause the rate hikes in July.
Moving onto Light Crude:
Not seeing any bearish indicators here; currently climbing back inside a bull flag, which if the measured move plays out makes $150 per barrel a probability, and $220 per barrel a possibility.
Let's look at the US Dollar:
Seeing similar weakness in this chart as we did on the 10Y, Bearish rising wedge and bearish divergence in the RSI and PPO. A reversal is likely given these indicators, aligning with my theory that the Fed will poosey out in July.
Looking at Gold:
Gold is also echoing the same technicals which lead to a Fed poosey out in July. Mainly looking at the bullish divergence in the RSI and PPO, I'm waiting for this down-trend line to break then I'll be going long, OR if it can dump down to $1,677.
S&P 500:
Very bullish chart despite the story that price action is telling you. We've been inside this falling wedge pattern on bullish divergence in the PPO
NASDAQ:
A less rosy picture for tech unfortunately… Looks like we had put in very slight bullish divergence back in mid-May which we've been reacting from since on the slow grind higher, however the down channel so far is intact.
Conclusion:
I think that a lot of big money believes the Fed is going to pause rate hikes in July given the technical indicators showing up and recent economic developments:
- Consumer spending is finally slowing.
- Atlanta Fed has projected a negative GDP print in July which is our next quarterly print and would officially mark a recession.
IF the Fed pauses, then expect the market to price that in very quickly but don't get pulled offsides because it's possible that it could be entirely offset by bad earnings and guidance. Keep your eye on Oil, if it continues to climb, then that make force the Fed back into an accommodation stance on the Markets which would be ATH in a matter of months.
Positions:
Gonna continue selling all the rips until Fed flips.
Submitted July 05, 2022 at 12:05AM by floppy_panoos
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