Swapnil Agarwal, a billionaire joins to defeat alzheimer – MONSTER DD on Cassava Science (SAVA) via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


Swapnil Agarwal, a billionaire joins to defeat alzheimer – MONSTER DD on Cassava Science (SAVA)

Okay folks, put down your crayons, shit is about to get real. If your last 2 brain cells still working, you should read the whole DD – for the rest of you retards: $SAVA to the moon 🚀🚀👩‍🚀🌚

(tl;dr at the end)

The Whale

Lets begin with a whale 🐳 who recently opened a BIG position in $SAVA. Swapnil Agarwal, a entrepreneur who turned $300k into $2 billion within 6 years! If you want to learn more about him, check this Article.

Proof of u/SwapnilAgarwal_ and his 500k position:
Proof1 – He is sharing Cassava Science new results via LinkedIn
Proof2 – update: he added another 120k shares!

Proof2

You think a successful entrepreneur who turned 300k into 2b is not doing a proper due dilligence? Maybe he got help from his wife who has a PhD in Biochemistry?? I'm sure he did his DD, so let's see what he might saw in the company!

Cassava Science – The Company:

A clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on neuroscience. Their mission is to detect and treat Alzheimer's disease. Their lead drug candidate is currently in an on-going phase 2 trial and will initiate phase 3 within the next couple of weeks. They continually releasing their impressive data from their trials and nobody ever achieved such results, but we will hit that topic later….

Alzheimer:

  • Alzheimer is a horrible disease and is the 6th leading cause of death in the US (source1).
  • There are 6.2 Million Alzheimer Patient's and it is projected to reach 12.7 Million by 2050 just in the US. Total annual payments for health care, long-term care and hospice care for people with Alzheimer’s or other dementias are projected to increase from $355 billion in 2021 to more than $1.1 trillion in 2050 (source2).
  • There is currently no drug to cure Alzheimer. All we have is medicine that can temporarily reduce the symptoms, but the disease will progress (source3). So on average, a person diagnosed with Alzheimer has only 4-8 years left to live (source4).

Okay… a TRILLION market and Big Pharma don't want to benefit from it, while helping those poor patients and familys???

BIG PHARMA:

They are trying for decades to bring an effective drug on the market that can slow down the progression of alzheimer. They burned billions and billions in R&D, but every drug canditate failed to slow down the disease. The majority of those drugs had one thing in common:
The amyloid cascade hypothesis (source5 – check the link for more details)

If so many drugs are based on the amyloid hypothesis and all have failed to slow down the disease…maaaaaybe the hypothesis is not the best!?!?!

Cassava Science – The drug "Simufilam"

I'm not going into details about the unique mechanism of action, you can check it out in the company presentation here.

What's more important are the results they got from their trials;
Phase 2a: The first 50 patients completed 12 month of treatment and the results are stellar!!! (source6). They not only slowed down the disease, they actually improved the patients cognition. AND without any safety concerns! Also a panel of biomarkers, that are related to alzheimer, improved aswell and just underlines the improvement in cognition. Ok, I know you guys have already headache from reading more than 50 words, so I try to stick to pictures as much as I can:

(Disclaimer: This picture is edited to show a trendline. Even though a plateau is totally expected, the trendline indicates we haven't even reached the
plateau yet!!!)

Results – 12month Simifulam – phase 2a

What you expect is a +5.5 point decline in an alzheimer patient over the course of 12 months. Simufilam improved it by -3.2 points.

To bring this into perspective, here are pictures of other alzheimer drugs. Did I mention that Aduhelm, which didn't show any efficacy and causes brain swelling/bleeding, is already FDA approved!?!?!

Comparison1

Comparison2

The bar for an FDA approval is very low, if drugs like Aduhelm getting approved. This leads us to…

Why Simufilam is not approved yet?

The regulations say you need a phase 3 randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial to get the drug approved and phase 2a was only open label (the patient knows he is getting the treatment drug). This leads to the main criticism: the results could come from a placebo effect?! Well, there is no chance that the placebo effect can improve an alzheimer patient over the course of 12 months.
A meta analysis with 20,000 alzheimer patients shows, that a placebo effect lasts only around 6months:

Placebo-effect doesn't last longer than max. 26 weeks

Phase 2b: Before spending too many resources in a big phase 3 study, sava did a smaller study to see if a double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial (no placebo effect possible), still shows similar results like in phase 2a. ….the results were stellar again! (2b_results)

Thats why Sava is about to start their phase 3 within the next weeks, under the Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) from the FDA. This means, if phase 3 shows similar results to phase 2, FDA is going to approve the drug. And as we remember, the placebo effect doesn't last 12 months, so it is very likely that phase 2 gets replicated in phase 3 and the drug gets approved. This leads us to…

VALUATION

In case the drug gets approved, I agree with the valuation from Joe Springer (check his articles on seeking alpha). To summarize it here: "There are about 6 million Americans living with AD, and globally, there are about 44 million with dementia, about 70% of which have AD, or 31 million. Biogen announced it will price aducanumab at $56,000, and drugs are typically valued at a multiple of about 4X-5X peak sales. As AD is the promised land – an enormous and growing market completely bereft of decent therapies, we will use the 5X multiple."

Sava has a good and clean global patent until 2037 plus extensions. But let's be very conservative:

  • Exclude the rest of the world and only take the US market
  • Only 1.5 of 6 million alzheimer patients will take Simufilam
  • Sava is selling their drug for 20k (compared to biogen's 56k)
  • Does the drug work in other neurodegenerative diseases? Maybe! But we exclude this huge potential aswell

"1,500,000 patients X $20,000 X 5 multiple = $150 billion market cap"

This leads us to a very conservative share price of $3,750 (current price; $65). Call me crazy but this is possible.

Why are we so fucking undervalued? – The CP-Story

I try to keep this short… There was a "citizen petition" (CP) making claims about data manipulation and safety concerns. Later the petitioner admitted that they shortselling sava. So they were spreading FUD and wanted to halt phase 3 trial due to "safety concerns". The allegations are very confusing and you need medical science background to understand them, so retards like us run away from the stock. Little did they know, that if retards like us getting confused, we hit the buy button! However, none of the allegations points to any safety concerns…. meanwhile we have biogens drug (aduhelm) that causes brain swelling/bleeding and got FDA approved?!?! Yeah no shit, let's halt a drug trial without any side effects, while approving another drug that doesn't work…okay except their side effects work really good.

Luckily, there is a group of different scientist debunking all those claims from the CP, so it becomes obvious that some competitors or shortsellers are behind those false allegations. If you feel uncertain due to the allegations just read the whole thing: DEBUNK!!

Oh and did I mention that 92% of those citizen petitions get dismissed? (source7)

Short Interest!!!

I know you fucking retards are not reading the whole DD + links + additionally did your own research. Luckily there is also a short squeeze in play. The latest data from Ortex 9-28-2021 shows:

Short Interest: 29%
Utilization: 98%

Management:

– Collectively they combine 14 FDA drug approvals
– They have prior experience from Pfizer, Sanofi, Johnson Johnson etc.
– They have indipendent directors who have a solid reputation like Sanford Robertson
– They haven't sold any shares, even though they sit on huge amount of profits. A quote from the CEO Remi Barbier “I know the science, I know the data, I know the disease and this stuff looks promising and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.” source8

Analyst:

The average price target of analyst is at $124 (+100% from current price) The lowest PT is $108 and the highest $215

tl;dr:

– billionaire buying huge amounts of $SAVA shares
– alzheimer disease – a projected market of 1.1 trillion dollar
– no competitor can improve cognition in alzheimer patients
– Sava's trial results look like the holy grail in drug development
– other drugs look dogshit compared to Simufilam so the bar for an approval is very low
– manipulation through a citizen petition – but all allegations got debunked
– price target if drug gets approved $3,750 (currently $62)
– the citizen petition led to a high short interest 33%
– the risk is very low compared to the almost unlimited upside potential

I'm no financial advisor and you should always do your own research! I have a beneficial long position in shares of SAVA and derivatives. I wrote this DD myself with the collective knowledge of many other investors and it expresses my own opinion. I am not receiving compensation for it.

Submitted September 28, 2021 at 08:00PM by jpvalue
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