SIGA is a real one. Here’s why. via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


SIGA is a real one. Here’s why.

References

SIGA Reports Financial Results for Three and Six Months Ended June 30, 2022

SIGA Technologies Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call

Preface

Covid was a tsunami that came quick, it was a novel virus with no vaccine and hospitals had no clear idea how to treat it.

Monkeypox is not going to be like Covid. There will be no lockdowns. The economy will not crater or lock up. Instead it will be a slow burn and since we have a vaccine (JYNNEOS) and an anti-viral (TPOXX), it will be more like preparing for a famine or a drought. It's all about making sure the resources go where they need to while we wait it out.

It is not an STI but transmitted by sweat, spit and other bodily fluids. The spread will be slow and will come as cluster outbreaks in social networks. The death rate will be low. The complication rate is an issue though. Blindness, internal scarring, encephalitis.

It affects children more than adults and the elderly might still have some immunity from getting the smallpox vaccine back the day. Daycares and elementary schools may be centers of contagion because children are disgusting little garbage monsters who put their hands and mouth on everything and are too stupid to understand basic germ theory.

Right now the gays are mostly (but not exclusively) getting it, so everybody dismisses it. The first elementary school breakout and parents are going to lose their minds.

Bull Case

SIGA made TPOXX as an emergency anti-viral for Smallpox. This is a small company that just happens to be at the perfect place in history. Nobody else has a product like theirs. It's beautifully suited for the moment:

  1. It has already been approved for general use for Monkeypox in Europe.

  2. It has been approved for compassionate use in the US, and general use is likely forthcoming.

  3. They have traditionally sold to the US and Canada. Price per course is $250-350 in the US and $900-$1000 for Canada.

  4. The US has had a stockpile of 1.7 million courses for years, in case of a biological attack. SIGA has had an existing $600 million contract to replenish as they expire, with $300 million on that contract remaining. The US will most likely purchase additional TPOXX over that stockpile in order to maintain their emergency reserves.

  5. They have received orders from 10 non-US countries. Nine of which are new, totaling $60 million in new international orders.

  6. TPOXX is showing fantastic effectiveness but most of all, little to no adverse effects compared to placebo. Testimonials from patients and doctors have been glowing.

  7. TPOXX is shelf stable at room temperature and has a long expiration. Countries can buy larger amounts now in anticipation instead of future spread.

  8. According to the guidance call, ramp up to meet high demand will be difficult but not impossible. No foreseeable major roadblocks.

  9. SIGA is looking into making TPOXX commercially available. If monkeypox goes endemic over the long term, that means it becomes the monkeypox equivalent of Valacyclovir.

  10. $40m in liabilities with almost $215m in assets with $103m cash on hand. Great position to be in, financially.

  11. Revenue for Q2 increased 51% over Q1 2022 and 91% over previous year's Q2 2021.

Bear case

Nobody can predict the future, amiright?

  1. The stock was already over 20 P/E due to speculative pumps before all the good news came in. This means you're going to have to stomach wild swings since it's possible it might already be fairly valued for forward earnings.

  2. We're going to be timing the market for a virus we don't know a ton about. Monkeypox might die out before SIGA pulls in real numbers.

  3. Profiteering on global pandemics could make you feel like a piece of shit and might not be morally and/or biblically defensible. I think about that. I don't think anyone reading this really cares, but I do think about it.

  4. Human studies are still early and dependent on patient studies because you can't infect people with monkeypox to test a drug. Which means it's very possibly bad side effects might come up as the drug is more widely used.

Conclusion

Let's do the math. If 25 countries want to stockpile 500k courses of TPOXX at $300 per (very low estimate for foreign countries), that's revenue of $3.75 billion. Will they sustain that forever and ever? Most likely no. But for the time being, that's a huge spike in revenue.

I have a small position in SIGA. I originally bought as a yolo bet for fun. Since then everything coming out is nothing but positive. The company is solid. They recently did a 25 million share buyback in Q1. The science is solid. They're staying dry and technical about the future, which I always appreciate over bs hype.

After years of vaccine hesitancy, it will be hard to get people (aside from gay men) to vaccinate, but once people get weeping pustules on their eyeball, it will be very easy to convince them to take TPOXX.

No price target. Not investment advice. I just like the stock.

Submitted August 05, 2022 at 11:11PM by sehnsuchtlich
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