Q2 Box Office Revenue Suggests a Modest Revenue Beat for AMC
Given that we already have Q2 2022 box office data, seems we should be able to use that with decent accuracy to predict AMC's upcoming revenue. Thesis is pretty simple: AMC derives virtually all of its revenues from box office sales and concessions, which of course directly depend on the number of tickets purchased. Based off gross ticket sales you can make a fair guess as to what AMC's actual revenue will be. Obviously AMC does not account for all box office revenue, but fair to assume that it comprises some percentage that doesn't differ too drastically from Q1 to Q2 of a given year.
Based off 2022 ticket sales, I’m predicting AMC reports approximately $1.23 billion in revenue for Q2 2022, which is slightly above the estimate of $1.18 billion. I’m sure there is a margin of error in my calcs (not smart enough to figure that out) so AMC could of course still miss. But I wouldn’t expect revenues to deviate too far one way or the other. No idea what this means for EPS or stock movement overall.
Math is below if anyone cares. Its pretty basic, just applies the % increase in box office gross from Q1 to Q2 to Q1 revenue, then makes an adjustment based on actual Q1/Q2 revenue. As we don’t have Q2 2022 revenue (obviously), I just averaged the adjustments from 2019 and 2021 to come out with an adjustment for 2022. Box office data is from boxofficemojo, and AMC's past revenues are from their 10Qs. I used 2019/2021 as comparisons, 2020 seemed like too much of an outlier.
Obligatory not a financial advisor and not financial advice. I generally lose money in the markets so don't listen to me.
Submitted August 03, 2022 at 06:59AM by mrfantastic3
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