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Lemonade Earning Analysis

I just finished reviewing the Lemonade inc (LMND) quarter. I am surprised that they still couldn't turn a profit from either a EBITDA or CF perspective. EBITDA $57.4 vs. $41.3 in 2022 and 2021, respectively. A PE ratio of 5.5.

YoY positive net financing cash flow growth of +14,887.50%; +150.29%; +13.66% and +90.44% (2017-2021)

2017: 800K
2018: 119.9M
2019: 300.1M
2020: 341.1M
2021: 649.6M

The biggest problem seems to be the balance sheet. FCF was -154M. This means the business itself lost $154m in FY21. I see the revenue recovery accompanied by the earnings. For the first half of 2022, the company has lost $74.8M running this business. They need to turn it around, quickly. The net cash position is the worst it has been in the latest 5 FY: -300.8M (2021) (prior: -31M, +85.5M, 167.9M and 301.1M, 2020, 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively).

However, increase in Gross Written Premium in all geographical locations versus 2021 has been noted.

Last earning report they lost approximately 35% of stock value within 1.5 months due to the negative numbers. July 11: $19.45. Current stock price $24.45, a difference of +23.45% in less than a month. Could be the increase before the decrease, especially given the last quarter numbers. Could be an easy short position.

Earnings date 08/08/2022

IV: 145.14% — 12-8
IV: 113.98% — 19-8
IV: 105.04% — 26-8
IV: 95.21% — 2-9
Historic Volatility: 76.61%

I do not take any responsibility for your financial decisions, which will be made by you or a representative of you. This is not financial advice.

Submitted August 06, 2022 at 04:03PM by kweetvannix
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