GNRC ⚡️⚡️ DD with 40k calls YOLO
Intro: Hello fellow autists. I, along with many of you, am sick and tired of the worthless PnD and fake short squeeze DD that has overtaken our beloved home. I am presenting a play that is not a short squeeze candidate, not a pump n dump candidate, and not some barely 1b market company I'm hoping WSB can move. This is a rock solid company entering a demand spiked growth phase that could see a 40-50% rally between now and eoy, whether WSB is on board or not.
(TLDR at the bottom)
1. Silently taking over the solar market.
2. Will benefit from power strain caused by what is becoming the hottest summer ever.
3. Will benefit from an expectedly wild hurricane season
Fundamentals: Boring shit, Keep scrolling if you want. One thing is certain. This company makes a fuck load of money, especially in comparison to their small market cap. Their EPS sits at 7.12, and their P/e ratio is around 50x. These may seem underwhelming, but GNRC competes with solar companies. For comparison, $RUN PE: 0x EPS: -.83 $SEDG PE:101x EPS: 2.4 Basically, GNRC makes lots of money selling generators and has ample cash flow to expand their solar market share against competitors that make no money. Fully manufactured here in the US. All parts and components are made and developed in house. No chinese trade bs to worry about.
Recent Rapid Growth: Generac Holdings net income for the quarter ending March 31, 2021 was $149 million, a 235.12% increase year-over-year. Gross sales q1 2021 up 70% to $807 million compared to $476 million q1 of 2020. Thats a lot of fucking growth
Massive growth potential: 4x projected growth over the course of 3-5 years (per company earnings releases). There is currently a 4-6 month back log, meaning a fuck ton of generators are being ordered, and production must ramp up to meet demand. To meet this demand, Generac is expanding manufacturing out of Wisconsin with a new manufacturing plant in South Carolina, completion expected in Q3 2021. The spike in orders will be reflected in future earnings.
Demand spike: In addition to the solar boom, hurricane season is fucking coming. We’ve already seen the idiots in Texas lose all their power, and hopefully the dumb fucks like me in Florida and other hurricane states are taking notes. The answer to power outages? More fucking generators.
Example: The tropical storm over the weekend has left hundreds of thousands of houses without power. Missouri had nearly 50k houses lose power.
Example: California power companies used power cuts this weekend due to the fire hazards and heat waves. They will continue to do this to avoid another disaster like last year.
Housing market: Unless you live in your mom’s basement you probably know the housing market is booming. California is basically requiring new homes to be built with solar panels and offering 10s of thousands of dollars in rebate if they buy home solar/generator systems. The PwrCell (Generac's version of the tesla power wall) is the best in terms of efficiency and power. In Texas, ERCOT is basically forcing people to buy home generators and solar systems. Rolling blackouts are being used to curb energy usage, so if you don't have a home generator then you lose power once a week. Get Generac or get fuked i guess. Is that bullish for all solar companies? Yes, but Generac makes the fucking best home solar system. Better than tesla. (we’ll get to that), and can actually afford (unlike other solar companies) to meet demand.
Lack of competition: there's two types of competition. One is solar companies, aka broke not profitable companies with massive expenses. Then there's the other competition, boomer shit like Cummins and black and decker, who compete to be the knock-off option in the generator sector. None of these companies specialize in generators, and none are in the solar market. Generac is its own fucking thing, positioned to make money from boomer shit like machinery, and future shit like solar.
Merger and acquisitions: GNRC acquired Deep Sea Electronics Jun 1: Deep Sea Electronics is one of the world’s top manufacturers of generator controllers, automatic transfer switch controllers, battery chargers and vehicle & off-highway controllers. Deep Sea Electronics employs over 160 people across four continents and sells products to over 150 countries direct from their UK head office through a comprehensive distributor network. With a foothold in the UK, this opens the door for expansion out of the U.S.
Key Product in demand: the GENERAC “PwrCell” is the most customizable, and therefore affordable solar battery backup system. PwrCell offers up to 13Kw- can store up to 6 batteries (for variability purposes), charge is actually insanely faster, more energy conservative, and overall cheaper to install.
For comparison: Tesla’s solar unit can only provide up to 7 Kw of battery backup, is 250 lbs, and has only one model (you would have to purchase multiple tesla units in order for it to actually power a home, making it insanely expensive- installers are moving away from product because not many people can afford it and they are chunky to install making labor much more). It’s actually a bitch and a half to install… I've been told.
Analysts fucking love it: many raised Pts, many from 400-410, some 410+. (These 400+ price targets were stated BEFORE acquisition of Sea Electronics. Price target jumps will continue as raters take global expansion into account.) 80% buy ratings, 20% hold ratings, 0 sell ratings.
90% shares are held by the institution, with a 4:0 ratio of insider buying to insider selling. (it means 4 insiders are buying for every 0 insider selling. Executives are fucking buying, maybe they know something?)
TA: 4 months of consolidation, ~25b market cap. Ready for the next growth phase.
My yolo position: ~40k in jan 400c
TLDR: Generac ($GNRC) has been growing rapidly despite share consolidation, and is ready to break out on a summer bull run. Generac is poised to benefit greatly from the hot temperatures of summer, hurricanes, power strain, and housing boom. Demand for Generac products has never been higher. They make the best home solar/power system, and can afford to meet production and turn significant profit. Additionally, they’re close to completion on a new manufacturing plant in South Carolina (expected q3 2021), and have acquired a UK company to spur expansion out of the U.S. Q1 was a massive earnings and growth beat. Generac is Charged Up for a run to tendieland.
Submitted June 20, 2021 at 11:39PM by InMuskWeTruskk
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