9-7-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Apple Daily Market Analysis
The day of the bulls… the day before father JPOW speaks… the day of…?
I think everyone wanted a trend day but everyone wanted/ expected a bearish trend day not a bullish trend day. If you were able to shake your bearish bias there was a lot of money to be made today.
The trend of green open= red day and red open= green day so far holds true…
One of the strongest 15min bull channels ive seen in a while.
While I am overall bearish still, there is now a potential V-bottom forming on the SPY daily chart.
Key support remains at 391.9 for that “recovery” support line and key resistance for the downward red bear channel remains at 398.2 tomorrow.
With only 2 1%+ green days in the last 16 trading days this is a much needed oversold bounce to reset the indicators and allow for the next leg down. Especially if you read my last night TA where I showed the probability that end of week and next week are red due to CPI/ FOMC (we still have no cpi consensus…).
If we break the red bear channel down I will get nervous about my 14dte puts, however, if we were to hold the blue resistance line from the 430 top I would not be as worried. There is a nice setup to have a similar trend as August 25th/ 26th with a nice 398 double top forming tomorrow. If markets are setting up similarly to the Jackson hole where they rallied into JPOW speaking only to dump like crazy intraday (he speaks at 910am) we could see a similar move tomorrow. However, there if of course always a chance we see a bigger bounce green and could retest 405 by EOW.
One of the major bearish things is that the daily 8ema was not broken… I think the correct thesis remains bearish as long as that daily 8ema holds as resistance.
Key support remains- 391.9 and 390.4
Key resistance remains- 398.2 and 405.2
SPY weekly continues to hold that blue 13 week long recovery line (despite futures/ apple breaking theirs). We are still looking at a downward bear channel on the weekly which could give a potential bounce back to 412.4 (unlikely honestly) this week.
Another thing to keep an eye on is the current 392.1 weekly candle double bottom that is attempting to form.
Futures daily does not actually show the same v-bottom recovery as SPY. It just shows a near support bounce off that 3883 area to retest daily 8ema resistance before the next leg down.
Key support- 3872
Key resistance- 3988 and 4000
Futures weekly is also showing a possible weekly double bottom at 3923 forming if we were to not visit the lows before Fridays market close.
Weekly resistance for this bear channel is 4000 tomorrow with next weekly level resistance at 4025.
Weekly support is 3900 then 3828.
Apple continues to remain the wild child. Intraday today and yesterday apple actually showed extreme weakness compared to the overall market and SPY. With apple only putting in a 0.93% green day compared to SPYs 1.8% green day Apple lagged most of the day.
I believe part of that reason is that there was no sellers today on SPY hitting under 70mil currently with only 104% of the 30day average volume vs. Apple hitting 87mil and 127% of 30day average. Apple had a lot of sellers today.
I was looking to see if Apple would close its back to back days under the daily 200ema, however, EOD it was able to pop its head over that resistance and couldn’t quite break down there.
We saw a pretty healthy rejection at 156.5 today and we will continue to look at that as resistance.
Key support- 155.5 (daily 200ema) -> 154 -> 152.2
Key resistance- 156.5 -> 158.9 (red bear channel)
Apples weekly chart continues to remain bearish. It shows that there is room for a potential pump as high as even 161 without breaking that bearish trend down. However, we should look for the weekly 20ema at 157 and weekly 8ema at 159.5 to be heavy resistance if we see upward movement.
Key support remains at 154 and if we were to break 154 I would be looking for 150.
VIX had a pretty large 8.44% sell off day today on this very green market day. It still is holding the recovery channel upward with a trajectory for the 30s. Key level to watch tomorrow remains at 24.3. If that holds and they close it back over 25.5 that would put things back on track for a bigger sell off eow and next week.
I will be posting my CPI breakdown post later tonight. If you read it you will see that I am overall bearish for Friday this week and the rest of next week as historically the week prior to FOMC is a big red week (with previous FOMC the only outlier).
I am still holding this put and I did average it down after closing bell today. I still see a bigger sell off to come within the next two weeks (most of it happening next week). I do not have plans to average this down again.
Tomorrow, we get yet another jobs report and as I said JPOW speaks “at the CATO institutes 40th annual monetary conference.” What is he going to say? Im not sure but if its anything like Jackon Hole the market is not going to like it. With no CPI forecast still I still forsee a bearish tone from JPOW. There has not been a bullish fed member to speak in a very long time. And finally markets are actually listening to what JPOW is saying. Tomorrows opening is going to be SPICY…
Overall a great day for me today. Took a loss on that put when I suspected we were going to see a sell off around 1215 when we broke then 15min 8ema. Other then that I didn’t trade much after 1230 as while I clear saw the bull trend day and that it most likely after that 1215a bounce was not going to break… I had a lot of trust in it and chose to just sit cash instead of trading something I had no conviction in.
Youtube and CPI post will be up later tonight!
Submitted September 07, 2022 at 10:31PM by DaddyDersch
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