9-2-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Apple Weekly Recap and Market Analysis
What a way to end the week. This morning was probably one of the most bullish technical days with volume, vix, momentum, etc. etc. that I have seen in weeks and we still managed to close spy >1% red.
If you had taken my call out you woulda reaped the rewards had you sold immediately at open. However, despite the pretty amazingly bullish morning we had (after the $3 sell off) we put in a big resistance today and from there it was an elevator to the bottom.
Todays and yesterdays intraday charts are pretty much polar opposites of each other.
There is a lot of bearish about this chart, however, there is also a lot of bullish about it too.
Lets talk about the bullishness of this week and this chart.
Spy just had a 13 day sell off for a nice $41.69 drop or 10.7%.
Lets reference back to last weeks weekly TA for a second here…
So we are 2 days and 2.6% (379.9 potential low) from the average drop from highs during this bear market. That then brings up the question of are we at the end of this sell off or is there more to go?
Yesterdays sell off was the result of 390/391 support holding up stoutly and providing a massive bounce. That 391 level is a key support level on the daily that spy has established in 2022. With yesterdays bounce off 390 and then todays bounce off 390 I actually am suspecting a small bounce next week. With the failure two days in a row to break through 390 that is showing that it is going to take a bit more to break through this level. As I have mentioned before we are at a spot where we can play spy level to level. This 391 level refusing to break actually infers we should make a run back for 405.2 next.
Today intraday there was a lot to be said that we might actually see a run back to 405.2 today or Tuesday (no trading Monday), however, 401.4 put in extreme tough resistance and due to some news about oil supply (as far as I can tell… see tweet below) markets went in to a massive 3.5 hour $11.23 nose dive.
However, despite that massive sell off there was still a failure to break through 390 EOD and even a bigger pop EOD.
Looking at SPY weekly you can see that we bounced right off key 390 weekly support. Holding that will provide some upside and until we break and close below that 390 level there is more upside to be expected.
The current resistance line from this sell off sits at 395.9 for next week and support will be at 390. From 390 we have the recovery support line at 388.9. If we see 388.9 fail next week that would be a bigger signal of a sell off possibly back to the lows in the 360s.
If you see that purple line that utilizes the March high and June low to project a possible sell off if we see the same sort of sell off. This gives us a bear trajectory of 332 by October 31st if we were to see the same sell off as March to June.
Overall looking at this chart and knowing that CPI is on September 13th (Tuesday) and that usually the markets start to price in CPI about 3 days before. If we are under the same sort of scenario I would for see a small move up to 405.2 early next week and we end the week on Friday with a bigger sell off. This would then lead into a sell off into the week of CPI. If we were to see a bad CPI (as of now there is still no prediction or forescast) that could accelerate a sell off down to 360s before FOMC, however, a good CPI would start a rally in my opinion back over 430 and possibly 460 eventually.
I am bullish (short term) until a daily candle closes below 390. I am bearish once a daily candle closes below 390 and will remain that way till we see a change in sentiment.
Futures is showing a lot of the same sentiment. Bullish until 3900 breaks and bearish once that does break.
Support is 3900 -> 3827 -> 3675
Resistance is 4000 -> 4025 -> 4060
Apple had an interesting day today too.
Along with SPY they both perfectly rejected their daily 8 emas. However, Apple attempted for the 2nd day in a row to break below and attempted to close below the daily 200ema, however, was once again unable to.
Apple is also another great candidate for level to level, however, unfortunately we ended in the middle of a level. We held 154.2 this week which is the daily 50ema. That should provide an upside push to retest resistance at 157.6 and eventually 161 which is this sell offs downward resistance line.
Key support will be at 154.2 which would ensure a break down of apples 13 week bull support and would signal a bigger move down of Apple into the 140s.
I have the same purple trajectory line on Apple which shows a possible downside of 125 by October 31st is the same level of intensity and sell off was to occur of March to June.
The VIX had a really interesting day actually. It started off the day with a massive sell off (when we were hella bullish) that led to a massive spike of the VIX to a peak of 26.3. However, the Vix managed to close its daily candle back under 25.5.
I have 18.9 to 25.5 and 25.5 to 34.9 as a key level for the VIX. We spent a lot of time in that 25.5 to 34.9 level which is when we spent most of our time selling off. However, the fact that the VIX is not ready to hold over 25.5 and is not ready to see a higher move up to 30 despite a 13day and 10%+ sell off says a lot. This also gives me a bigger expectation of a move to the upside.
My expectations would be a move Tuesday thru Thursday up to that 405.2 range and then Friday will start the next sell off.
Remember markets need a reason to sell off. CPI will be the next catalyst for a sell off followed by FOMC.
This was a frustrating week for me where I just beat myself. I started the week off with a big loss (my own fault for removing my stop loss and thinking a bigger sell off was coming… of course came the next day). I fought back all week trying to get back to a green. I managed to recover a lot of my loss but still finished red.
I miss played yesterday failing to take profits on two winning puts that the EOD massive rally burnt me on. Then I unfortunately got caught bag holding a call right before the markets bottom fell out. I was able to turn the day around today and finish nicely green though.
The good from this week was my swings. This week I played some 5-7dte swings on apple and spy that all paid well. I went extremely small so despite how well they paid. I also did really good this week identifying level to level and setups. However, I failed to be aggressive enough to capitalize on the moves. I watched a lot of great setups and moves go 20-50% and failed to take them out of caution.
The biggest failures this week was trusting the trend too much. Monday I expected the trend to continue and it did not. By time I went to cut my loss it was nothing left to cut. Similar happen today that I failed to accept the break down and was expecting a rally (in this market despite the wildness of some of these moves up or down once they happen we really should not expect an equal or bigger reversal).
I did have two great wins yesterday I failed to take profits on which led to some green and resulted in the week finishing green. Even with my big loss Monday… had I close my two trades profitable yesterday (when they were green) and today cut my loss any time before I did I actually would have turned in a great week.
I also let the fact that I was down $xxx all week effect my trades as I was constantly looking for the “big move” to get me back to green all at once instead of just taking the good clean setups.
The plan next week is some smaller position sizes with 20% take profits and 30% trailing stop loss on all plays. I am going to be more pro-active and more aggressive with my entries and exits. And when I recognize the move I envisioned didn’t happen I am going to aggressively exit early instead of letting it run to my stop loss. The full stop loss should only be utilized when I catch a bad move or some sort of fuckery like this mornings dump.
Everyday is a new day and everyday is a day to learn and improve. Not the week I wanted but I take the good and the bad of every week to revise what I am doing to make the next week that much better.
I hope you guys have a great weekend and enjoy the extra long weekend.
Youtube will be up soon!
Submitted September 03, 2022 at 02:28AM by DaddyDersch
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