8-30-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Apple Daily Market Analysis
Well nothing quite like an almost $8 sell off within an hour and 15 minutes of open to look like we have another Friday drill day on our hands only to end up chopping the rest of the day.
In terms of trust… there is no trust in this market.
We are still attempting to find support for our blue bear channel. Today we could be establishing the actual support if we use August 10th and today as support.
We did not retest 405.3 today which in bearish in the fact that we are separating ourselves from that resistance level on the daily. We also managed to break though that 402.2 support that was holding us up yesterday and also took out the next support at 398.9. However, due to the daily candle finish new support is going to be at 398.2 tomorrow now.
Bears were not able to continue the sell off past 396. Key supports tomorrow is going to be 398.2 and then 394.4 (this is the blue channel support). If we can take those two levels out the last support is the daily support level at 391.
My ultimate target remains 390 to 391 by Friday this week.
Resistance wise the bulls have some work today and they need to retake 402.2 resistance tomorrow. If they can retake that level we might see 405.3 again. We are currently sitting right in the middle of the daily resistance and daily support levels we should continue the break down to 390/391 this week though.
Spy weekly continues to show a breakdown pattern and we are closing into that blue support line for the symmetrical triangle. That support is at 387 for this week. However, weekly level support remains at 389.4 for the rest of the week.
Futures established support at 3965 today and never looked back. It also back tested resistance at the daily 50ema and failed to retake it. The futures daily candle is actually an engulfing candle too which should lead to more downside tomorrow and rest of the week.
Key supports are 3988 followed by 3965 and then the blue support line at 3955. From there if we break through those we should test red support at 3940 and potentially breakdown as far as 3925.
Key resistance remains at 4025 and 4060.
The weekly is continuing to look bearish. We are seeing the weekly 8ema and weekly 100ema as resistance. Support remains at 3900 and 3875 for the blue symmetrical triangle support line.
Apple continues to have nice breakdowns however it is not seeing the magnitude of moves that it used to see on big red days. It continues to lag behind it appears that most tech is in a slow bleed rather than a massive sell off that will bottom and bounce fast.
Apple did bounce off key support of 158 today and failed to go lower.
I went ahead and closed both my Apple longs here. They were down more than 50% at open so I couldn’t really hold them much longer. I was able to offload them at 157.5 before the big EOD bounce so I take that as a nice win today.
Support tomorrow will be at the blue bear support and black bull support (this is the 12 week long bull channel that apple has STILL not broken) at 157.3 tomorrow. If we see a bounce here tomorrow that is a pretty bullish indication that markets might not breakdown much more then here.
However, if we break through 157.3 I will be looking for the gap fill to complete from July 28th at 157.64 (apple missed it by about 8 cents today) and will look for support next at 155.5.
Resistance will remain at that 159.9 and 162.2 levels for tomorrow.
I mentioned playing level to level on Apple weekly and that’s what I was doing with my puts I played from that 161 level down to the 157.5 bounce today. Apple did hold support there and that is also the weekly 20ema. We are holding under the weekly 8ema currently and will need to see that support of 157.5 broken by EOW to ensure further downside.
As you can see the 12 week long weekly bull channel support remains at 154.3 for this week.
The VIX did attempt to breakout today, however, was unsuccessful in breaking yesterdays high. It did retest that 25.5 level and held that level support once again. We will look to see if VIX can close back over 26.7 tomorrow. Markets should remain bearish as long as VIX is over 25.5.
Was able to recover some of yesterdays losses and hope to continue recovering more as the week goes on. I have accepted that I will most likely close red this week. So I am working on damage control one win at a time.
I did open a 3dte 394p closer to EOD (regrettably for the massive pump EOD) but I am holding this put until we see 390. IF we can touch 390 tomorrow or Thursday this should be a nice 100% play for me.
I haven’t been much of a fan of swings lately as I have found I have trouble seeing them through and I cant really manage the loss how I would want to. So what I have done if I swing now is I open the position to be the size that if I was to take a 100% loss it would be only a 10-20% loss on a normal position.
I do expect we COULD open green and back test resistance at 402.2 tomorrow. If we do I will be okay with averaging down one time there. However, besides that I do not plan to touch this.
Youtube will be up later.
Submitted August 30, 2022 at 10:38PM by DaddyDersch
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