8-3-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Apple Daily TA via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


8-3-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Apple Daily TA

Today we saw yet again a case of extreme bull momentum. The bulls were out in full force today or should I say… the bears didn’t wanna sell today.

This is now the 5th day in a row where we have opened ran up… dumped (and a very convincing dump may I add) only for us to then run even harder EOD.

The craziest thing of the whole day is Apple…

https://preview.redd.it/ifthv1ij8kf91.png?width=758&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cf6e847ff50c2468be530ad00eb8e4a64f96d9d

Apple had an implied move of $2.01 with a improbable high of 162.84… for those of you who don’t know IV prices in movement everyday and overall it provides probable and improbable ranges… generally speaking even touching the improbable high is RARE let alone going over it…

So today we saw apple have a total DTR (daily true range) of 5.84 which is 290% of the implied IV move. It was also 144% of the average 10day range and 134% of the 30day average range. It reached nearly $4 over its improbable high of day. This is one of the most imbalanced and “unexpected” moves I have ever seen on apple.

https://preview.redd.it/vy6xbs3k8kf91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=9992b6c6a9028c8553f9205388de4e07d540a8b7

This was the greenest close apple has had since May 27th. As you can see looking very interesting on the daily…

We have officially broke out of the red rising wedge. We are now working on another black dotted rising wedge. This one uses early June dates for the resistance line. Today Apple perfectly hit that. It uses the last 7 trading days support for the support line.

This pattern gives a high of 167.6 and a low of 162.9. We still have that gap down below also on Apple but we are obviously getting further and further away form that gap.

https://preview.redd.it/tus6p2pk8kf91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=200c1bda0bb87c211cf2e9ecec02b9dc8d81e5e5

Apple weekly chart broke its resistance line today too for the overall down trend and now all that is left is the resistance of the overall market which uses January 3rd and March 28th weekly highs as resistance. That gives us a possible upside of 174.5 next week.

Overall if this extreme bullish momentum keeps up there is a case to be made for apple 175 next week.

https://preview.redd.it/euqavk8l8kf91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a06be3d1bd7d4916f02809ca8329af7ad4a5d18

Overall SPY and Futures are putting in some crazy looking rising wedges… some of the tallest and most extreme rising wedges I have seen in a while on the daily.

Currently you can see on SPY we have the purple dotted resistance line which we rejected perfectly today. It uses the July 29th and June 28th daily candles for resistance. Resistance for tomorrow will be at 416.7

The black dotted resistance line uses July 29th, July 8th, July 7th and June 29th for resistance. This give sus a resistance of 418.8 tomorrow.

And then we have the red dotted resistance line from June 28th, June 15th and June 13th which gives us resistance of 423.5 for tomorrow.

We have three potential rising wedges on the daily right now which is the most I have ever seen and they all give us potential to reject a resistance tomorrow.

The black dotted support line using August 3rd, Aug 2nd, July 27th and July 26th we have 413.8 as support tomorrow.

We broke the possible down trend resistance today too.

We are also about to hit the 417.4 level support which is also the daily 200ema.

Overall despite pretty much every sign pointing to a sell off today AND that morning dump looking hella convincing the bears continue to be in control. There is no reason to short this until we break the 100ema. But I still hesitate to go long until we see the daily 200ema confirmed broken.

If we break that 200ema there is a decent chance we reach out for 430 next week. A good CPI could fuel an even higher bull run too.

https://preview.redd.it/lv324lxl8kf91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=863757c0e7963f322dc6c7a70d5bb2ceb9001593

Futures major resistances are the blacked dotted rising wedge at 4178, red dotted resistance at 4202 and the blue bull channel at 4241.

The 4178 level is both the daily 200ema and it is the resistance from June highs.

The biggest supports to watch for ES is 4117 and 4079 tomorrow.

https://preview.redd.it/z44f7ggm8kf91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=2020a20b334ba1b0e2d880768f85da8ff568465a

Spy on the weekly timeframe did attempt to break into the next weekly level at 415 today, however, end of day it lost that level. This has been a level that has been struggled to be breached and closed over since April. This will be a key level to watch the bulls and bears fight over.

https://preview.redd.it/rl0qkm1n8kf91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9034aa07d93719cc3fcf8925c7ae0e20c227d37

Futures also rejecting this level of 4160 too. This level for futures too has been pretty major resistance since April.

The bears will need to defend these 415/ 4160 level aggressively tomorrow if they have any hopes for the EOW and next week. Overall this is setting up for a break out to that 430/ 4360 levels unless we see a major sell off tomorrow and Friday.

https://preview.redd.it/8a504xon8kf91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=54e7bd56d1dd6b2d9ca4aa2b693920e9e8ca191e

The VIX had the biggest red close since June 15th… the day of FOMC. I still struggle to short this until we see the VIX do something other than drop every single day.

10% challenge-

Today was a GREAT day I turned into an L by not following my own rules of course.

https://preview.redd.it/3ytsqzdo8kf91.png?width=770&format=png&auto=webp&s=11c84e9c9985f21267473f7381aaf4205a4fbb85

I played that morning drop pretty nicely. Got out for a 21.1% gain (of course it pretty much went straight to 100% right after… ) but got caught at what looked like a clear support break and close under 8ema only to get burnt. I didn’t manage my risk well enough and from there it was pretty much over. And then they faked me out with the head and shoulders on the 15min and break of momentum only to rip it even higher.

Todays lesson… stick to your rules AND never ever fight momentum. The momentum today especially on the volumes was some of the stupidest extreme bull momentum ive seen yet.

Tomorrows a new day and a new chance.

I am carrying some 9dte Apple 152.5 puts overnight that I do suspect by next week to at minimum break even. If we ever lose this bull momentum and we drop to gap fill as I suspect Apple needs to then they will be sitting pretty good.

Submitted August 03, 2022 at 10:43PM by DaddyDersch
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