8-1-22 Spy/ ES Futures and Apple Daily Ta via /r/wallstreetbets #stocks #wallstreetbets #investing


8-1-22 Spy/ ES Futures and Apple Daily Ta

Welcome to a new month of trading! So far August is showing a bit of a change of pace compared to July. Perhaps the tides are changing?

Today was one hell of a choppy, indecisive and volatile day. I would call this a range day but its not the smooth normal range days we are used to. A lot of these candles were left with some massive wicks and filled with volatile reversals and indecisions.

So where are we at?

https://preview.redd.it/8d4jgh1fw5f91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c31940de583b86eab40a4dd61f3fc9ebce86045

https://preview.redd.it/e6r958wfw5f91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf72f69a27f2ebc505cf64c2b65aec1cb5c7b331

Looking at the SPY/ ES daily charts we got a couple important things to note.

On SPY the daily candle did wick through the downward bear channel resistance, however, on ES we had a clear rejection of resistance. Channel resistance for ES remains at 4142 for tomorrow.

Despite a weaker day and closing red the bulls were able to hold the 100ema and even avoided a true retest of that support. SPYs daily candle finished as a large bodied gravestone doji while you could consider ES futures daily either a dragonfly doji or a hanging man depending on how you analyze it.

SPY daily candle is bearish while ES is neutral to bullish, however, with the ES channel resistance rejection I favor bearish there.

As you can see on SPY I have highlighted some horizontal levels that we have historically this year traded within. Currently we are visiting that 405.3 to 417.2 levels. If you look at May 27th to June 8th it appears we could be preparing to enter a similar level of consolidation. This consolidation could lead to the next leg down or up with 405 and 417 being those key levels to watch for direction.

The 417 level is going to be protected heavily by the daily 200ema and that will be quite the resistance for bulls to break and hold over, while by time we get to it the daily 8ema will be closer to that 405 level and also will add some downside support/ protection and the daily 100ema at 407.5 should provide some heavier support also.

Overall daily chart wise I will be watching for range/ consolidation and prepared to play the level to level chop like I did today. Until we see the daily 100ema or daily 200ema break I am not apt to chose an overall direction.

https://preview.redd.it/twterangw5f91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9786a3823c46ab0759908677e68f0a09ede7016

https://preview.redd.it/pgdenighw5f91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=e27e2430efb5a070061104a2947db0521933145a

SPY/ ES weekly you can see we did break out of the bear channel, however, historically about the time w break the channel is about the time we are seeing the top and start our week of consolidation. So that is something to bear in mind. Overall the SPY 415 and ES 4160 levels are going to be very key resistance levels to watch this week. If we see a pretty clean rejection there going into next week (much like the week of May 31st and June 6th) I will be apt to play some downside going into next week.

Bulls need to defend the now 8 week long bull channel support at SPY 400 and ES 4018. Overall this support is also the weekly 8emas for both. An intraweek support bounce here and pushing further up before end of the week would be bullish going into next week.

https://preview.redd.it/1x97im2iw5f91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=23aca5365443d9fac728e1f719253ec938d65206

Overall Apple is the most bearish of them all and as I alerted today at the 163.59 HOD rejection that Apple is the best put play between SPY and Apple. That rejection today locked in my opinion an extremely bearish week ahead for Apple.

https://preview.redd.it/93yf23niw5f91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=66b006f87c503fad3a288e27ffe30ead4b52d775

Todays daily candle is a double top and it is also a large gravestone doji. This candle should be the reversal/ downside indication many need to go long on some puts for the gap fill. As I mentioned last week apple had one of the largest gaps in many years left of the daily. I was also mentioning the weekly and how it was looking for a weekly channel rejection… well today we got that confirmed rejection.

I will be looking for apple to back test support and gap fill this week.

Key supports will be the weekly bull channel support/ daily 8ema at 157. And the gap just so happens to be at 157.64… almost too perfect of a bounce area. Level and daily channel support comes in around that 157 level also. I would be surprised to not see some 8/5 or 8/12 ATM puts print nicely on this gap fill.

Once the apple gap fills I do suspect there to be a nice bounce unless it flies through 157 and see 155 level. A break of the 155 level would be a bear omen and could lead to the next market sell off.

In my opinion this whole year apple has led and predicted the direction of where SPY and the markets were going.

10% challenge-

I had an extremely frustrating week last week and spent a lot of the weekend reflecting and back testing a few different strategies to improve my trading. This week I decided to make a few adjustments to my trading and indicators and here they are.

– i am now watching the 1min/ 5min chart with heikin ashi candles with a 20/ 50 ema following it. Intraday today the 1min HA candles with the 20/50ema was the best and most responsive. The 5min with the 20/50ema was great but a very lagging indicator.

– i am no longer tracking the VIX live for entries. I used to heavily track the VIX and momentum there to confirm the direction of SPY. With the low VIX and overall detachedness of VIX/ SPY I no longer feel the need to do so.

-I have no added my daily and weekly levels to my 15min chart I watch all day (level highlighted with purple and red thick lines). I think often times I was getting too lost in the noise of the the 15min candles, especially on days like today, and mixing the bigger picture level to level moves. Overall this was highly successful.

-focusing on limiting entries for better profits on less entries. Less is more.

-cutting all losers hard stop at 20%. No more letting losers become massive losers.

-Relying on the probable and improbable IV levels as a better guide of when to and note to enter. The higher and closer to the improbable HOD the less likely hood I am to enter unless we have hella strong momentum and volume.

Overall today was a great day… had one L on a bad fake out reversal that had I held woulda been very profitable but I was happy to cut the L and still turn in a profit for the day.

https://preview.redd.it/8v2j6pujw5f91.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a7042a625f4e04a5353558bfe7d06c3984dd855

Biggest lesson of the day? Sometimes its better to just stop after 1 or 2 trades… had I just stopped after my first two trades and I even had talked about it in my server I would have finished with about 3x the profits I finished with today.

Every position we should be weighing risk to reward but we can not be scared to enter just to protect or win rate either. Day trading is a massive struggle of risk and reward. Some days the risk outweighs the reward but today it did not.

Submitted August 01, 2022 at 10:30PM by DaddyDersch
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